This Turkey Day – I’m Thankful for…the Holy War

Many Cougar fans are disappointed in our season.  We entered the year with high hopes, which we only saw grow and GROW to astronomical heights 4 weeks into the season, where we sat proudly at 4-0, and had already defeated who were thought to be the toughest teams on our schedule.  “Twelve n O baby.”  “New year’s day bowl or bust!”  “Playoffs?!”  

We all bought the hype.  Shoot, I drank the Kool-Aid.  It tasted great too. 

And who could blame us?  We seemed to be finally back on a crash course with destiny – on the shoulders of our Heisman trophy candidate, the all-around-All-American-kid from Idaho.

You know how this story unfolds – we just got done watching it.  Now at 7-4, we’re getting ready for our final regular season game Saturday.  But this post isn’t about Cal.  This post is about the jokers we SHOULD be playing.   

As is my way – I will present findings (facts), to which I will add some conclusions.  However, I largely invite the readers to make their own conclusions of what is presented.  I must warn you though – if you love the Y, like I do, you aren’t going to enjoy all of what follows.  It isn’t pleasant.  It isn’t fulfilling.  This post is partially an indictment of the program, as a whole.  It pains me to write these things.  But, sometimes the truth hurts. 

Before I get to the Holy War, I want to point you to a couple articles I found detailing the effect of coaches on performance.  These are official studies of multiple sports by professional economists stemming from decades of data inserted into econometric regression analysis tools (contrasted to myself: although I do have a degree in economics, I am still only a pretend economist as I’m writing from my basement, and not a fancy lab or downtown office building.  But at least it’s not my mother’s basement, right?! ;)  At any rate, these articles do shed considerable light about why Cougar fans are so unusually disappointed right now in both our coach and program:

Pushing “Reset”: The Conditional Effects of Coaching Replacements on College Football Performance       which can be found here

Using the data of 120 schools spanning from 1997 to 2010, these researchers found that poor teams who replaced their coach continued to be poor, and that mediocre teams actually performed worse when they replaced their coach.  As with any study, there are obviously exceptions and outliers, but the general findings of these economists can’t be ignored.

Is Changing the Coach Really the Answer?

As the title clearly denotes, this economist questions the rationale of changing the coach, referencing several studies, including the one above.  In addition to college football coaches having little effect on performance, studies of Italian Soccer, the NHL, and the NBA showed similar results.  He has also written other articles on the subject worth a read, such as:

This                  (a very similar argument to that made in my open letter)  

And this                     

This last article discusses the factors that contribute the most to fan dissatisfaction, and eventually, a coach being fired.  I was astonished to see how much these factors apply to growing displeasure in Provo.  Studies found that all wins are not created equal, and that wins in the current season, wins last season, and conference wins each help a coach keep his job.  However, of these, conference wins are much more important – and it turns out conference wins appease fans.  Interestingly, thanks to being absent a conference since 2010, BYU has exactly ZERO conference wins the last four years.  Another finding – holding all else constant, the better the program performed historically, the more likely the coach is to be fired today, regardless of whether the coach was at the school or not (sound familiar?) 

A storied history   +   a mediocre present   =   Angry Fans

The article also reveals that strength of schedule and bowl wins have little to do with fan dissatisfaction and a coach being let go.  This can be seen in the context of our own exploration – during LaVell’s tenure, BYU had poor success in bowl games (won just 33%, one of LaVell’s only struggling’s), compared to that during Bronco’s tenure (67% win).  According to this study, fans weren’t overly aggravated with LaVell’s bowl losses and they equally aren’t overly pacified with Bronco’s bowl wins.

Finally, what was one of the biggest factors to fan unhappiness and ultimately a coach being canned???  Losing Rivalry Games. 

“Forget bowl games, conference wins, player stats, etc., nothing is bigger than beating Utah.”

- A commenter on my Open Letter 

The Holy War…in Perspective

Now comes the unpleasant part.  This last section will taste bad to Y fans, only partially because of the results, but even more so because I have a lack of solutions. Lets get down to business: BYU sucks against Utah.  There, I said it.  This is no revelation, though.  I know it, you know it, we all know it – because it has been our reality lately.  But has it really only been of late? 

The Holy War has gone through several transformations, or power shifts.  In preparing this post, I’ve asked several people, even fellow former players, this question: in LaVell’s first 21 years, how many times did BYU lose to Utah.  No one knew the answer.  From 1972 to 1992 (21 seasons) the ugly Utes beat us exactly TWO times.  19/21.  We owned them.  It wasn’t much of a ‘rivalry’ for two decades (granted, prior to LaVell, Utah absolutely dominated the series: 41-8-4).  And then everything changed in 1993, again. Only 9-years-old, I was at that game and I still remember vividly sitting there in the west stands in Provo, utterly shocked as their kicker iced a 55-yard field goal to beat us in the final minute, 34-31.  I recall being outraged as I watched their fans and players try to tear down the north goal post; in my young life, I had never seen such a thing, and I couldn’t understand why they would do that!  I wanted to punish them all.  And thus, my hate for Utah was born.  They beat us again in ’94 (also 34-31, you remember the funny commercials with McBride and LaVell), and again in ’95, successfully beating us more times in 3 years than they had in 21.  I went to the ’94 game in Salt Lake with my dad, and proudly wore my BYU coat and hat.  We entered the stadium in the wrong portal, and had to walk to our seats in front of several sections of solid Utah fans – these sections each stood in unison and booed us with everything they had, with the closer ones hurling at us anything they could, including violent vulgarities and snowballs, which continued the whole game.  Many fans were classless, tasteless, and unruly.  My hate for Utah flourished and then cankered. 

Back to the series – I asked people another rivalry question: how many times did Utah beat us in LaVell’s last 8 years?  The answer – 5 times. 

LaVell’s losses to Utah                    2/21   and then   5/8

Crowton’s losses to Utah               3/4

Bronco’s losses to Utah                   6/9

We have faced Utah 21 times since ’93, and Utah has prevailed in 14.  That means they are beating us 2 times out of 3.  As I say those words, it is like acid all over my tongue.  It burns.  But Utah does have our number. 

My point is this – Bronco has struggled against Utah.  But so did Gary Crowton before him.  And so did LaVell before him, at least after that fateful game in ‘93.  Now, the “Fire-the-Coach” crowd will accuse me of being “blinded by my love for Bronco”, or of “making lame excuses”, or of…whatever.  No.  I fully acknowledge Bronco and the current players need to do a better job against our hated rival, there is no denying that.  I simply want Cougar fans to realize our struggles against them began long before Bronco took over.  Yes, part of his job is to fix that problem, which he has yet to do.  How can BYU do better against Utah?  This is the part I said you particularly wouldn’t like – because I don’t have the answer, and I certainly won’t pretend I do.  Your guess is as good as mine as to why Utah has, by and large, out-played us the last 21 years.  I really don’t know.  I do know (courtesy of Brian Johnson) that in ’07 they taped pictures of Max Hall and yours truly in the urinals in their locker room – so their players could piss on our faces all week.  Maybe that’s how they get so pumped for the game?!

I love to hate Utah.  I hate them with a passion.  Yet they are my favorite team to play, and it’s not even close.  Some of the readers/commenters of my last two posts confused my defense of Bronco as only being a product of playing for him, of ignoring trends, of being satisfied with mediocrity, of…blah, blah, blah.  Sorry folks.  Been a Y fan since I was 5, long before I ever played there, and will be long after.  I defend Bronco because I know him.  And I love who he is as a person and as a coach.  But more than that, I defend Bronco because I LOVE BYU FOOTBALL!!!  And even before finding the studies listed above, I realized that firing the coach is the easy, but often-unwise solution for the long-term benefit of the program you love.  Or as the pros say it:

“In the broader context of the debate concerning the managerial influence on organizational performance, the results suggest that a change of management in the midst of a crisis is unlikely to improve performance by more than might have been expected through the natural tendency for mean-reversion after a spell of poor performance.”

Or

"Despite the fanfare that often accompanies the hiring of a new coach, our research demonstrates that at least with respect to on-field performance, coach replacement can be expected to be, at best, a break-even antidote."

We need to play better against Utah.  I believe in the program, I believe in our coach, and trust the power will shift back in our direction.  I SHOULD be going to yet another Holy War game Saturday, what is supposed to be a yearly cap to the college football regular season.  It is rivalry week and we have no rivalry game.  This Thanksgiving, you and I find ourselves left unfamiliarly empty and unfilled.  No Turkey or stuffing can fill this void.  Despite this present emptiness, and our recent shortfalls, what I ask of myself, and now what I ask of you is this: We will fight, day or night, rain or snow.  Loyal, strong, and true…

-Bryan Kehl

Addendum:  I forgot to include my response to the commenter who believes beating Utah is the be-all, end-all.  I told him that beating Utah is a HUGE goal each year...BUT....I do not know a player or coach who would rather go 7-5 with a win over Utah, than go 10-2 with a loss to the Utes.  Beating Utah is important - but it does not 'make' the year, and having an over-all good year is much more important.

Ideally - we just go ahead and do both   (which we did 'in my day'...I know, I know, I sound like your granddad...)

 

            

Responding to Questions & Comments, Part 1

I noticed in comments and on twitter – a LOT of people completely missed the point I was really trying to make in my open letter, despite my explicit disclaimer:

(Disclaimer: comparing Bronco to LaVell is actually foolish, because the era’s of college football, opponents, and circumstances are SOOO different, it really doesn’t reveal anything.  BUT, we are in fantasy land, so we don’t care about any of that.)

My point wasn’t to compare 2 coaches from completely different eras.  I knew it was risky to run with, but proceeded for a purpose.  The comparison of LaVell v Bronco?  Simply a charade… partly for entertainment, partly to be sarcastic, but mostly to point out what I find to be compelling truths – that LaVell had strange consistency over his 29 years compared to the first 10, and, likewise, to Bronco. Now I didn’t major in Statistics, but I took a few classes, and am equipped enough to notice that just like any data set or sample population, LaVell’s success has ebbs and flows.  A simple average usually ignores these.  My FOREMOSTobjective was for people to recognize that those peaks and valleys during LaVell’s tenure are directly tiedto who was under center.  AND, the current valley that Bronco is facing is equally directly tied to who has been under center (less than 1% of readers went to the page with the win-loss graphics, so most weren’t able to personally view this reality.)  I did NOT run the comparison in some feeble attempt to say – see look, Bronco has similar numbers, so he’s just as good as LaVell.

I pointed out that most years found BYU winning 8 or 9 games.  That was simply a finding though, not a prophecy.   I don’t want BYU to be mediocre any less than you do.  I’m definitely not saying we are destined to 8 or 9 wins going forward, or that such is a dandy year, and I’m happy to have it!!  I want 12 wins and a national championship every year!!!  I never played in a single game at BYU I didn’t expect to win.  I think you are weak as a competitor if you go into any contest otherwise.  But at the same time, I also didn’t head for the ledge of the nearest cliff if we did lose a game.  What I’m saying is this: even though players and fans should hope for, even expect, undefeated seasons, players and fans should not declare the season – or for some people, the world as we know it – over, dead, ruined, deceased, etc., should we slip up and lose.  (Very sadly, college football in general, and especially independence, further propagate this tendency.  I will discuss that topic in the next post.)

Another misconception found in comments and on Twitter – “you lost all credibility when you defended playing Riley Nelson.”  My inclusion of Riley wasn’t about defending the decision to play him (although, I will come back to that in a moment).  It was to make another point (which appears to be largely missed by readers).  I will be the first one to tell you – Riley Nelson was often a lousy quarterback.  That being said, he is truly one of the best ‘football players’ I have ever seen, and I would go to war with that dude any day.  At times he threw some of the worst balls you’ve ever witnessed.  But, his toughness and intangibles led us to valuable wins, during a time when we had limited options. 

I digress, back to my purpose in including Riley – it was two-fold.  A: it provided a nice segue into the SUPREME point of my letter - that Quarterback play is the principal determinant of victory, and B: to dramatically show how much the landscape of college football has changed from 1974 to 2014 (further advocating that a comparison of LaVell v Bronco is futile at best.)  I was fascinated to learn that essentially the same passing numbers which award you the Sammy Baugh trophy in 1974, now reward you with criticism of not being able to complete a forward pass in 2012.  It was that discovery I was highlighting, and I felt I just couldn’t leave it out.  Again - times certainly have changed.

Just a word on playing Riley Nelson.  Overly criticizing the coaches for this – talk about going for the low-hanging fruit. (I emphasize ‘overly’ because some criticism is okay, fair and warranted, especially when it is objective.)  It’s easy to sit back in your recliner or on row 30 at a stadium and nit pick every little decision the coach is making, without knowing anything of what is happening in meetings, at practice, behind closed doors, etc.  Or without having to be responsible for those decisions.  Just go ahead and kick the dog.  He’s close by, and won’t do anything about it.  What isn't easy - having limited options at the most important position on the field, multiple injuries, and trying to make the best decision for your team to win ball games (coaches just want wins, remember…and so do fans…neither really care if they are ugly.)  Just start Jake Heaps you say?  Well, no true freshmen had ever been the full-time starter at BYU.  In fact, I watched firsthand as Gary Crowton was too scared, all year, to play Ben Olson (my roommate) as a true freshmen in 2002, despite him being HEAD AND SHOULDERS better than all of our other quarterbacks, and everyone on the team knew it!!  Anyway, do you really think having a 2-headed quarterback was Bronco’s greatest dream?!? Give…me…a…break!! They wanted to ease Jake in, without too much pressure on him, by sliding some of that pressure onto Riley, who actually had college football experience (8 starts at USU, and a whole year in BYU’s system under his belt).  Riley got hurt anyway, so that point was moot the rest of the year.  Heaps played solid football down the stretch, but he regressed the next season, sucked it up the first few games, and was benched (pretty sure QBs get benched all the time, even good ones).  Riley came in and won a bunch of games, though they certainly weren’t pretty.  Heaps transferred after the season (and how’s he played since then?)  Enter Taysom Hill 2012.  True Freshmen.  Same problem all over again.  And now Riley is a senior.  Keep in mind folks, even the great Ty Detmer couldn’t unseat the incumbent as a frosh, and he was a redshirt freshmen.  Some fans criticize Bronco left and right for “not being able to see Taysom is better than Riley.”  Come on man!! OF COURSE they knew he was better, it’s just really really hard to start a true freshmen over a senior who just helped you win 10 games the year before.  Taysom ended up getting the nod a few games in anyway, and he did great, but tore his knee.  We’re going in circles here.  At the end of the day, Riley Nelson truly is the poor man’s Tim Tebow (who is one of the best college ‘football players’ EVER!)  I once sat on the field stretching before a game against Denver in 2010 and watched Timmy warm up….honestly, the ugliest arm I’ve ever seen.  I sat there in disbelief and said – ‘how in the world did that guy get drafted in the first round.’  Guess how – grit, charisma, and leadership.  Truck loads of it.  Boat loads of it.  Much more than Riley (plus more size and athleticism), which is why he made the next level.  But not enough to keep him there.  Guys want to go to war with those dudes.  And sometimes coaches decide to play them over other options.  It doesn’t make them great quarterbacks though.

My point in all of this?  Going for Bronco’s jugular for playing Riley Nelson is too easy and too cheap, and surely doesn’t take all factors into account.  I’m not saying he necessarily made the absolute correct choice each step, or even that I myself would have played him, but I for one wouldn’t want to be forced with making those tough decisions (I promise you, I sat and yelled at my TV screen just as much as you did watching Riley make bone-headed turnovers.)

Sadly, the pattern of easy-pickins-condemnation goes further.  Many people in comments and on twitter have executed our coaches for not developing enough draft picks (which I will address more in a future post) or recognizing the pro talent of Brad Sorensen and Ziggy soon enough.  Pointing things out after the fact sure is fun, isn’t it?!  Personally, my hindsight is flawless - I’ve successfully predicted every Super Bowl champion the Monday after the game.  Come on guys!!  NOBODY knew Sorensen would be a pro guy.  He redshirted in 2009 (while Max Hall was winning us 11 games and helping us finish 12th in the country.)  We already had highly touted Lark and Munns, and even higher touted Heaps coming into town in the spring.  What did NOT highly-touted, NOT highly-recruited, WALK ON Brad Sorensen do?! He transferred to SUU that same spring.  Ummm, please tell me what exactly our coaches could have done more?!?! Please please tell me, cuz it will also be the solution to learning magic, leprechauns, and the Easter Bunny.  Should they have twisted his arm? Promised him the starting job?  The keys to Bronco’s truck?  Folks…folks…there’s NOTHING they could have done more (and beyond that, he stayed one year in the league and never played a down…so quit trying to act like Bronco ran him out of town, and he would have been the savior to 2010, ’11 and, ’12.)

As for Ziggy?  Beast athlete, no doubt about it.  I remember like yesterday standing on the sideline next to Kelley Poppinga watching a practice his first spring.  I said “who is that dude!?”  Kelley laughed, told me his story, and said the following - “man, he could really be scary if he figures out how to play football.”  Believe me friends – there is nothing the coaches wanted more than to unleash that monster on the field.  But they couldn’t do it for a long time, because he didn’t know what in the crap he was doing.  All the athleticism in the world can’t make up for going in the wrong direction.  And going to the wrong place compromises the entire defense.  Two examples.  I arrived at the Giants just one year after they cut the greatest ‘freak’ of them all - LaVar Arrington (which they did just one year after signing him to a 7-year, $49 million contract!)  What did the other LBs say about the famed LaVar?! To a man – “he’s the single most impressive athlete I have ever seen in my entire life, but he seriously didn’t know how to play football.”  They said they literally had to explain cover 3 to him in the huddle…every time they called it!!  Ultimately, he never succeeded in the league for 2 reasons – injuries, and lack of an understanding of football.  Example two.  A few months before I left the giants, they drafted Jason Pierre-Paul 15 overall.  The similarities between Pierre-Paul and Ansah are uncanny.  Both 6’5” 270.  Both hoopsters late to football (Pierre-Paul didn’t begin til a Junior in HS.) 

          Ziggy               4.63 forty, 7.11s  3-cone, 9’10” broad jump, 21 bench reps

          Pierre-Paul      4.71 forty, 7.18s  3-cone, 9’7” broad jump, 19 bench reps

Both posted low sack numbers - Ziggy with 4.5 to Jason’s 6.5.  And, both had limited starts – Ziggy with 9, and Pierre-Paul with only 7.  GM Jerry Reese was hung by the media for “over-reaching” on Pierre-Paul at #15, especially considering the G-Men already had 2 pro-bowl DEs on the roster.  Now that Pierre-Paul is an All-Pro, Reese looks like a genius.  Back to my point – just like Ziggy, it took time for Pierre-Paul to become a starter at South Florida because he was late to football, raw, and still learning how to play a complicated game.  It’s tough for a coach to give a guy extensive playing time when they don’t know what they are doing, even if they are a world-class athlete.

My first post was a defense of Bronco, but much more than that it was a declaration that players, not coaches, determine the outcome of games (most especially the quarterback).  I am shocked how many people can’t understand this simple truth of athletics.  In fact, a commenter said the following:

Bryan, I read your letter you made valid points but guess what - using the players as scape goats is really low.

Wow?!  My bad for, you know, placing the blame for a team’s poor performance on, you know, the guys on the team…who are actually out there playing the game!!  I asked a Texas High School football coach (O Coordinator) what he thought of the points I made in my letter.  His reply:

Funny you should ask…We started 5-0! We now sit at 5-4.  We have had 8 TDs called back in those 4 games for holding or some other penalty.  We have thrown 4 INTs in the Redzone and have fumbled twice inside the 5-yard line.  I couldn’t AGREE MORE with you!  Coaches coach and players play!!!  Now it’s my job to make them play better!!  But I can’t play for them!

In future posts I will elaborate more on why I felt the need to go to bat for the guy many people have written off, and some even want executed in the town square.  For now, I will reiterate it again.  Bronco deserves plenty of blame both for our mid-season slide, and recent struggling’s in past years.  BUT – he doesn’t deserve all of the blame, he doesn’t deserve to be fired, and, most importantly, in order for us to play better – we need the guys actually playing to...play better.  The coaches can't play better for them.

ps  Check back soon, I will post the second part to my Response shorty, it's almost done.  Including addressing the rivalry with Yewtah.

An Open Letter to all who love, hate, or are indifferent to BYU Football (aka: everyone)

Dear Everyone,

The ol’ wifey has been bugging me for 4 years to write a blog.  Well, without further ado, here is blog post # 1.  She wanted me to write about my daily workouts.  I had been plotting one about current events and politics.  Looks like it will include all of that, and now BYU too.

We’ll cut to the chase.  I’ll start by thanking Derik Stevenson.  Great catching up with you at Coach Schmidt’s linebacker reunion last month.  Derik played with my bro, and was a fierce warrior.  Like many others, I read your open letter last week, and it motivated me to action.

 

 Derik – you are wrong. 

DEAD WRONG

Upon reading your letter, I didn’t like your tone, your language, or most of your content.  You did have a fewvalid points, but it sounded much more like the words of a fair-weather fan anxious to lead the next lynch mob after a slumping coach than those of a former player who should remember the old adage “Coaches coach and Players Play.”

Fire Bronco?  Well, that’s the flavor of the month, isn’t it?  (Funny, cuz just a month ago, all was well in Provo, we were headed to the playoffs, and “Fire Whittingham” was the flavor of the day.  My how fast perceptions change when you allow yourself to be blown in the wind.)

Before I go any further, I want to clarify one point for everyone:

BRONCO IS NOT THE REASON WE LOST 4 IN A ROW!!!!  

Now, is he without blemish?  Of course not.  He’s made his mistakes, as have all our coaches.  They are, in fact, human.  However, those of us who are privy to what the player’s assignments are on given plays have noticed this – THE PLAYERS HAVE MADE MORE!!  (Especially the Defense, and my how saying that pains my inner core.)  Those 4 losses are the player’s fault.  Period.  It is a simple and sad truth, however, that coaches get too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses.  Phil Jackson is the greatest NBA coach right?  He won the most, 11 rings!!!  Well guess what, I don’t know a lick about coaching basketball, but if you gave me Michael Jordan, Shaq at his most dominant, and Kobe…. I’m pretty sure I could give you at least a handful of rings too.

In a future post, I might further address this silly concept of players in the game either executing or not executing their assignments being the principal cause of victory.  But for now, we will head back to fantasy land and PRETEND that the head coach is the key reason a team wins or loses.

So let’s look at Bronco vs. LaVell.  Because Bronco sucks and should be fired, right?  And we need to find the next LaVell ASAP so we can get back to laying “waste to any fools that dare step onto the field of battle against [us].”

(Disclaimer: comparing Bronco to LaVell is actually foolish, because the era’s of college football, opponents, and circumstances are SOOO different, it really doesn’t reveal anything.  BUT, we are in fantasy land, so we don’t care about any of that.)

Now, Derik broke down many of the stats regarding Bronco’s performance, which is what I’m about to do (correctly, though.)  He conveniently excluded the first 5 years (better years), saying those players weren’t Bronco’s recruits (We will never know, but I would wager if those first 5 years were chuck full of losses we would have seen them in his breakdown.)  At any rate, omitting those years, in and of itself, is a contradiction to our central ‘fantasy-land’ premise.  See, if the coach is the chief reason a team wins or loses, and it’s Bronco’s fault we are sliding now, why does it matter which players are on the field? Or how they got there and who recruited them?  None of that matters, just who is the coach and does he win.

So, back to Bronco vs. LaVell.  Bronco has had 9.75 years to demonstrate his worth, so we will measure those against the first 10 of LaVell.  

Overall wins and losses:

  • LaVell             86–33-1           (72% win)
  • Bronco           87–38              (70% win) 

       (What was LaVell over his career you ask?  257-101-3, which is…wait for it…72% win.)

Conference wins and losses:

        Bronco was in a conference for his first 6 years, so we compare those to LaVell’s first 6. 

  • LaVell             30-11-1           (73% win)
  • Bronco           39-9              (81% win) 

(Because I know you are curious, LaVell went 55-14-1 for 79% over 10 years, and 175-42-2 for 80% over his career.  Guess what Derik, LaVell won a lower percentage of his games against non-conference teams, just…like…Bronco.)

Conference titles:

  • LaVell             3 in his first 6 years (2 of them ties)
  • Bronco           2 in his first 6

(LaVell had 7 in 10 years and a total of 20 in 29 years, 7 of them ties.)

How about 10-win seasons? 

  • LaVell             3 in 10 years for 30%
  • Bronco           5 in 10 years for 50%

             (LaVell had 10 in 29 years, for 34%.)

Bowl Appearances:

  • LaVell             6 out of 10 years
  • Bronco           10 out of 10

(If we don’t beat at least Savannah State, you can have my house and my cars, because I’m moving under a rock.)

(Note:  this comparison is unfair to LaVell; the college bowl landscape is different and much more widespread today.  But, none of that matters in fantasy land!!)

Bowl wins and losses: 

  • LaVell             2-4       (33%)
  • Bronco           6-3       (67%)

            (LaVell was 7-14-1 overall, which is 34%.)

Top 25 finishes: 

  • LaVell             4 in 10 years for 40%
  • Bronco           5 in 10 years for 50%

(Overall, LaVell had 12 in 29 years, which is 41%.  Man, is there a pattern here?!?)

Okay.  If you passed 5th grade, you’ve noticed something by now.  LaVell was eerily similar over 29 years to his first 10….AND…so far Bronco has been eerily similar to LaVell.  LaVell edges Bronco in overall winning percentage and conference titles.  Bronco beats him in conference wins, 10-win seasons, Bowl appearances, Bowl wins, and top 25 finishes.  The highest LaVell finished in his first 10 years was ranked #11.  Bronco, #12.  In those first 10, LaVell had a 5-6 year, a 6-6 year, and a 7-4 year.  Bronco’s had a 6-6 year, a 7-6 year, and this ugly year. Soooo….what does all of this mean?!?!

ABSOLUTELY NOTHING

They are different coaches in different eras with different circumstances.  At the end of the day, Bronco has been ridiculously similar to LaVell.  LaVell went on to be ridiculously similar in his next 19 years.  I expect Bronco to do the same, for as long as he is here.  Everybody can see this year (month) we are struggling.  Injuries (one guy in particular, and I will come back to that), blown assignments, idiot play, missed tackles, inopportune turnovers, bad bounces etc, etc, etc, AND coaching errors, are the culprit.  Now, if you think all of this merits Bronco being fired…well then, I’m super glad you don’t determine my employment.  

Coaches coach and Players play.  Players catch, block and tackle, not coaches.  Players jump off sides.  Players push the opponent after the whistle.  Players bite on double move after double move.  Obviously, good or bad coaching is a factor to all of this.   But the end result is the guy on the field in the heat of battle determines performance.  Now, I believe quarterbacks get too much credit for wins and too much blame for losses, just like coaches.  And it drives me nuts.  Win as a team, lose as a team.  That being said, if you were to weight which one person contributes more to the winning or losing effort than anybody else…. it would be the quarterback, and it’s not even close.  Much MUCH more than the coach.  

Our defense has flat out sucked, but I would argue vehemently that if Taysom never breaks his leg we aren’t sitting here at 5-4.  I’m not guaranteeing we would be 9-0 either, but we don’t lose all 4 of those games.  Straight up, Taysom Hill is a difference-maker, on and off the field.  He is truly one of those rare players that can put a team on his back and will victory.  Not having him out there has killed us, and it’s flattened our spirits.

And this brings me to my final - and most important - point.

BYU has had good football teams because we have had good quarterbacks.  A LOT of good quarterbacks.  In fact, you could make a case that BYU has had more than anybody else.  We boast 7 Sammy Baugh trophy winners, most in the country (given to “the nation’s top college passer.”)  The next closest school only has 4. 

The last few years our signal caller hasn’t quite been what it used to be.  Taysom was on the verge of changing that.  Some joker on Cougarboard with call name Jam Master J criticized Bronco for “…trying to play Riley Nelson for two years when he can’t complete a forward pass.”  As a senior, Riley only played 10 games and went:

          181/308 attempts, for 2011 yards with 13 TDs against 13 picks

Pedestrian numbers, but he had true grit, was a CHARISMATIC leader, and got us valuable wins.  Key to remember, we didn’t have many options.

Not surprisingly, LaVell’s first conference title came with strong passing and our first Sammy Baugh winner – Gary Sheide in 1974, LaVell’s 3rd season.  What were his numbers you say? 

          181/300 attempts, for 2174 yards, with 23 TDs against 19 picks 

Did I mention today is a different era in football?!

I grew up going to every home game and those great Holiday Bowls in San Diego.  I loved interacting with LaVell as a kid, as 2 of my brothers played for him.  As a freshmen in ‘02, I was coached by Crowton (who I like), and sadly sat front row as the wheels came off my beloved program.  I had 4 months of spring training and practice under newly arrived Bronco as the D coordinator, right before leaving on a mission.  I got back just after Bronco was made head coach, and took part in his first 3 seasons.  I KNOW Cougar football.  And now, I just spent a few days looking over BYU football for the last 40 years.  Here is the BOTTOM LINE: BYU wins 8 or 9 games, mixed in with a very occasional 7 or 6-win year…UNLESS…we have a pro quarterback.  Then we have a 10-win season.  Our first 3 pro quarterbacks (Carter, Sheide, and Nielson) were fantastic, and got our factory started.  Since then, EVERY SINGLE pro quarterback we have had led us to at least one 10-win season.  This applies to Crowton, who had 12 wins in 2001 behind the arm of Brandon Doman.  The lone exception is good ol Riley Nelson, who did something no other BYU quarterback ever did (despite apparently not being able to complete a forward pass.)  Riley was the ONLYnon-pro to lead BYU to a 10-win season.  (10 wins is 10 wins, every coach in the country would take that, and they don’t care who is on the schedule.)

(Note: I used the word ‘pro’ and not NFL only because of Steve Sarkisian.  Despite leading the entire nation in passing efficiency in ’96, and finishing his career 3rd all time in that category, the NFL ignored him and he played in Canada for 3 years.  It still boggles my mind.)

Lets Recap what we’ve learned:

  • LaVell = Great
  • Bronco = Great
  • WE DON’T NEED TO FIRE BRONCO
  • Players (not coaches) win games (especially quarterbacks)
  • BYU WINS 8 OR 9….UNLESS WE HAVE A PRO QUARTERBACK….THEN HE LEADS US TO 10 OR MORE

 

My fellow Cougar fans:  I love BYU football, just like you.  I have high hopes and great expectations, just like you.  But let us look at our storied history for what it is…. and not pretend it is what it isn’t.  Even in the “Glory Years” we didn’t win 10 games every season.  We did it about 1 out of 3.  And even then, those great years only came when we had a professional signal caller under center.

Let’s give Bronco and the other coaches some slack, continue to cheer on our boys in Blue, and never waiver our support amidst this current storm or any other that certainly will come with the ever-changing tempests of life.

Loyal, Strong and TRUE

GO COUGARS

-Bryan Kehl

ps Be sure to check out the 43-Year and 10-Win Season graphics.

     There is more to follow.  I have noticed other trends too…

pps On the radio the other day I said "people calling for Bronco's head are nothing short of fools."  By saying that, I wasn't trying to be a name-calling grade-schooler.  I chose that word for exactly what it means: "Fool  1. a person who acts unwisely or imprudently; a silly person."  And I stand by that.